Showing posts with label portfolio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label portfolio. Show all posts

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Stay Away From Bonds?

Are Bonds A Bad Investment?

My first investment was the gift of a 500 dollar Canada Savings Bond from my grandparents on my 12th birthday. I think I lost the certificate somewhere between high school and university. Nonetheless, the old adage "buy bonds" seems to no longer apply in today's economy as a sure fire way to secure your retirement income. In fact, financial guru Pat McKeough says "Stay out of Bonds" in his publication, How to Trade Stocks and Make Good Investments in Canada. Does this shift in conservative investing philosophy make the heavily bond invested coach potatoe portfolio and other conservative investing strategies obsolete? Are all bonds off the block or are there certain types of bonds and fixed income investments which continue to be appropriate and acceptable instruments to secure my retirement?


In this issue of TheInvestobot, we'll explore the real story behind McKeough's rejection of bond investments, what type of fixed income investments are available to balance the conservative side of your retirement portfolio, and I'll propose some ideas that may quell the bond-fear breakdown in the old "buy a bond and forget about it" strategy of our parents and grandparents.


What is a Bond?


First things first, what are we talking about? Technically speaking, a bond is an IOU of sorts issued by various government treasuries, companies or international organizations that entitles holders of these investments a coupon payment at periodic intervals until maturity. These coupon payments are typically a fixed amount represented by a percentage of the face value, or a floating rate of return in relation to some index or reference.

This is a summary from Wikipedia concerning bonds:
"Governments issue government bonds in their own currency and sovereign bonds in foreign currencies. Local governments issue municipal bonds to finance themselves. Debt issued by government-backed agencies is called an agency bond. Companies can issue a corporate bond or get money from a bank through a corporate loan ("preferred stock" can be "fixed income" in some contexts). Securitized bank lending (e.g. credit card debt, car loans or mortgages) can be structured into other types of fixed income products such as ABS - asset-backed securities which can be traded on exchanges just like corporate and government bonds".

The difference between bonds and stocks can be simplified to this: Bonds retain their nominal value, stocks may lose value from the date purchased. A bond with a $1000 face value will be worth $1000 at the end of the term. Bonds pay interest, some stocks pay dividends. Governments issue bonds but never issue stocks.

Other Types of Fixed Income Investments

According to TD Canada Trust, investors can purchase the following types of fixed income products in Canada: Government of Canada Bonds, Federal Crown Corporation Bonds, Provincial Bonds, Stripped Bonds, Mortgage-Backed Securities Term Deposits and Guaranteed Investment Certificates. You'll notice that 4 out of 6 of these choices are "bonds". So if we are to heed guru warnings about staying out of bonds, that leaves mortgage linked term deposits and GIC's as the only other way to fill up 25-75% of your investment portfolio depending on your stage in life for conservative investors. Seriously? That seems odd since so many mutual fund and ETF companies tote bond diversification as part of a balanced investment strategy. Some sources include preferred stock as a type of fixed income investment since they usually issue regular dividends.

Why The Negative Attitude on Bonds?

Enter new google search: "stay away from bonds".

In summary of the multiple pages of results that came up, there seem to be three major reasons to avoid bond investing through managed funds and ETF's which boil down to lack of control as to which bonds are purchased, limited returns, and bond fund fees which might eat up any profits in low return investments. There are newer funds which offer no-load fees and low MER's, but the overall sentiment was that your money simply won't grow.

I found this somewhat hard to believe since the average annual return on investment in the TD e-series Canada Bond index fund was just over 5% and many of the low MER ETF's like the iShares XBB which is based on the DEX Universe Bond Index was a modest but acceptable 6.25% since inception. That still pays more that the average 5 year GIC at 3%. So why the negative press on bond investing as a whole. I'm not yet convinced.

Pat McKeough says "STAY OUT OF BONDS"!

Pat McKeough is an intelligent, experienced, revered and highly recommended financial guru, writer, expert and advisor here in Canada. As a subscriber to his newletter The Successful Investor, I received a free report on investing in Canada entitled How to Trade Stocks and
Make Good Investments in Canada. In this primer, Mr. McKeough has written a chapter entitled "Stay Out of Bonds".


McKeough writes that interest in bonds has been revived due to recent market volatility as bonds provide a source of steady income and guaranteed returns. However, according to his analysis, bond prices are projected to fall over the next few years as interest rates inevitably rise due to government deficits. He suggests investing only a small portion of your portfolio in bonds and other fixed-income instruments, and in place, "aim to build a diversified portfolio of well established companies with long histories of rising dividends".


McKeough suggests that the right equities/fixed return ratio in your portfolio will depend on your financial circumstances, temperament and how close you are to retirement. He suggests that if you chose to hold some fixed-income investments, stick with Canadian T-bills with maturities of around three months and stay of long-term bonds.


Hunting for Fixed Income Investments

Summary of my research? For the fixed income portion of your portfolio, purchase short term T-bills, GIC's, mortgage-backed securities and solid dividend-paying equity or preferred stock. Here's the breakdown:

1. National Housing Act (NHA) Mortgage-Backed Securities:
This is an investment in a pool of Canadian residential first mortgages which  provide monthly interest, a competitive rate of return and good liquidity, which means you can easily convert your investment into cash. NHA Mortgage-Backed Securities are sold in $5,000 denominations in terms of six months to 25 years and are backed by the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation, an agency of the federal government.
REITs qualify as fixed income instruments if they lend money directly to real estate owners and/or operators or indirectly through the purchase of mortgages or mortgage backed securities. There are ETF REIT's available through iShares, Claymore, BMO and Horizon's. I am going to review these in an upcoming issue of TheInvestobot.
2. Treasury bills and other money market instruments:
Issued for terms of one month to one year with a wide variety of maturity dates, Treasury bills, bankers' acceptances and commercial paper provide higher yields than bank accounts and term deposits. Canadian T-bills with 3 month maturities can be purchased through brokers such as TD Waterhouse.
3. Guaranteed Investment Certificates:
GIC's can be purchased from any bank and most brokers and typically offer fixed term investments of 1 to 5 years with guaranteed interest at the end of the term.
4. Preferred Stock/ Dividend Paying Equities:
Preferred stock is stock that tends to act like a bond because it has a fixed dividend payout but isn't guaranteed if the company does poorly. From Investopedia: "There are a number of strong companies in stable industries that issue preferred stocks that pay dividends above investment-grade bonds. The starting point for research on a specific preferred is the stock's prospectus, which you can often find online. If you're looking for relatively safe returns, you shouldn't overlook the preferred stock market."


ETF's available for preferred stock include: Claymore's CPD  and iShares' XSP .

Happy Investing!

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Taming the ETF Jungle

Are You ETF'd out?
There are so many ETF's out there that I've become dizzy reading prospectuses and delirious trying to design a mix. My initial wish-list consisted of 20 ETF's from various sources, including iShares, Claymore, and BMO with a few cool Horizon's beta choices for playing volatility and shorting downtrends. I realized that from a personal perspective this would be impossible to execute consistently and take far too much time. I wanted to design a core portfolio of ETF's some of which will be dividend producers, others which will be fixed income, and all that consist of good choices when balancing value, quality and health of companies held.
I decided to stray from the usual guru data on iShares ETF's which seem to be the most touted and focus on BMO. In comparing MER's across many of similar iShares and BMO offerings, BMO seemed to beat iShares on most equivalent funds.
Planning to Retire with Titans and Dogs!
The overall goal of this retirement portfolio is to have exposure to quality Canadian, US equity, and International equity from diverse sectors in addition to diverse fixed income sources, dividend sources and some emerging market exposure that would allow easy rebalancing and fit the retirement investment needs of a 40 something with about 20 years left to retirement.
Titans Meet Dogs Meet Income
Here is the gist of the portfolio:
ZCN: BMO Dow Jones Canada Titans 60 Index ETF 25%
ZDJ: BMO Dow Jones Industrial Average Hedged to CAD Index ETF 25%
ZGI: BMO Global Infrastructure Index ETF 25%
ZMI: BMO Monthly Income ETF 25%
ZCN: BMO Dow Jones Canada Titans 60 Index ETF: Portfolio Strategy: BMO Dow Jones Canada Titans 60 Index ETF has been designed to replicate, to the extent possible, the performance of the Dow Jones Canada Titans 60 Index, net of expenses. The Fund invests in and holds the Constituent Securities of the Index in the same proportion as they are reflected in the Index.
Top Holdings:
Royal Bank of Canada    
Toronto-Dominion Bank              
Suncor Energy Inc.          
Bank of Nova Scotia       
Cdn Natural Resources Ltd          
Barrick Gold Corp.           
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan
Goldcorp Inc.    
Bank of Montreal            
Canadian National Railway          
Performance: One year:  MV/NAV   21.71%/22.18%    MER   0.15%
Sector exposure:  financials, energy, materials, industrials, telecommunications, consumer discretionary, information technology, consumer staples, utilities
Geographic: Canada

ZDJ: BMO Dow Jones Industrial Average Hedged to CAD Index ETF: Portfolio Strategy: The BMO Dow Jones Industrial Average Hedged to CAD Index ETF has been designed to replicate, to the extent possible, the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (CAD hedged), net of expenses. The Fund invests in and holds the Constituent Securities of the Index in the same proportion as they are reflected in the Index. The U.S. dollar currency exposure is hedged back to the Canadian dollar.
Top Holdings
IBM Corp.
Chevron Corporation
Caterpillar Inc
3M Company
Exxon Mobil Corp
United Technologies Corp
McDonald's Corp
Boeing Company
Coca-Cola Company
Procter & Gamble Company
Performance: MV/NAV 1 year 18.55%/19.33% MER 0.23%
Sector Exposure:  industrials, information technology, consumer staples, energy, financials, consumer discretionary, health care, materials, telecommunications
Geographic: US

ZGI: BMO Global Infrastructure Index ETF:Portfolio Strategy: BMO Global Infrastructure Index ETF has been designed to replicate, to the extent possible, the performance of the Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index, net of expenses. The Fund invests in and holds the Constituent Securities of the Index in the same proportion as they are reflected in the Index. The Manager may also use a sampling methodology in selecting investments for the Fund.
Top Holdings:
Hutchison Whampoa Usp ADR
National Grid plc ADR
TransCanada Corp
American Tower Corp
Enbridge Inc
Gpo Aeroportr Pafco ADR
Spectra Energy Corp
Keppel Corp Ltd, ADR
Consolidated Edison Inc
Sempra Energy
Performance: One year MV/NAV 18.66%/18.68% MER 0.55%
Sector exposure: utilities, industrials, energy, telecommunications
Geographic: US, Canada, Hong Kong, Brazil, Mexico, Singapore, UK, Netherlands, Greece

ZMI: BMO Monthly Income ETF: Portfolio Strategy: BMO Monthly Income ETF has been designed to deliver the performance of the underlying basket of higher yielding BMO ETFs. ETFs are selected by having a higher yield than either the equity market represented by the BMO Dow Jones Canada Titans 60 Index ETF (ZCN) or the fixed income market represented by the BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF (ZAG). The holdings are weighted by yield, with 50 percent investment in each of equity and fixed income and a cap of 20 percent for each security with a range of 6 to 10 ETFs. The ETF is rebalanced quarterly and reconstituted semi-annually in June and December. In addition, as ZMI is a fund of fund, the management fees charged are reduced by those accrued in the underlying funds.
Holdings:
BMO Eq Wgt REITS ETF
BMO High Yield US ETF
BMO Eq Wgt Utilities ETF
BMO Emerg Mkt Bond ETF
BMO Cvd Call Cdn Bank ETF
BMO Mid Corp Bond ETF
BMO Long Corp Bond ETF
BMO Equal Wgt Banks ETF
BMO Short Corp Bond ETF
BMO Eq Wgt Oil & Gas ETF
Sector exposure: financials, corporate bonds, high yield bonds, utilities, emerging market bonds, energy
Geographic: Canada, US, emerging markets
No performance data available yet. MER: 0.55%

ZCM       25%
ZDJ         25%
ZGI         25%
ZMI        25%
Disclosure. I don't yet own these ETF's. Fifty percent of my savings is directed towards a sleepy portfolio such as this. Currently I have investments in TD-e series funds including the Canadian Index, US Dow Jones Industrial Index, International Index and Canadian Bond Index. Yawn!
Happy Investing!

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

One side of Couch Potatoe and A Barrel of Crude to Go Please!

I have a connundrum. I am perplexed at what style of trader I should be. Although I enjoy the thrill of the daily chase in the markets and individual stocks, I am not sure my personality can handle the ups and downs, anxiety and panic, and momentary thrills cut short by the sudden gap downs in stocks I was certain would be winners (ie. RGEN).

Too Much Noise!

I have been listening to too much noise. "I have an awesome mutual fund, check it out." "My ETF investments weathered through 2009." "My grandfather made his fortune in penny stocks." "Diversify, don't put your eggs in one basket." What does all of this mean? Do I diversify and invest in everything?

Then I'll just order one couch potatoe portfolio to go please, with a side of gold bars and a barrel of crude!

I have some money. I want to invest it. It is currently burning a hole in my trading account. I bought some stuff. The stuff hasn't moved. I made some profits on a couple of small tech plays and one mining venture. Then I bought some ING mutual funds, some index ETF's and although I have green on my screen, there are small bits of red that bug me and plague my mind with fear of failure.

I want to automate my investing to a comfortable level of regular contributions to some basic things like mutual funds and broad market ETF's. But I also want to enjoy the ride of trends, the thrill of the venture pops and the occasional volatile day trade. Am I crazy?

Is this bipolar psychotic trading?

What I've decided to do is hedge my bets. I picked some funds with 4 to 5 star performance over three years to focus one half of my investments on a regular basis with a 33% bonds, 33% Canadian Equities, and 33% Other (mostly US Equities) split. Of the remaining 50% of my savings, I decided to allow the market and a couple of my favorite gurus drive these decisions. So half of my investing is a no-brainer process that I will try to rebalance semi annually and use cost averaging to help weather any falls in the market.

The other 50% is the fun part. I can't seem to decide if the penny stock world, the sector trend investing, or value investing is the way for me to go. I have a moderate to high risk tolerance for this 50% that I would otherwise probably spend on stupidities anyhow. So I am going to create a program for myself. Not a computer program, but a set of regular activities, analysis and predefined reactions to execute my plan.

Pick Some Pros to Do The Work

I've nailed my Gurus to 3: Tony Turner, whose club I have decided to join; Ron of the Doityourselfinvesting.com duo, whose newsletter/club I recently subscribed to; and The Motley Fools who are just plain cool and whom I want to invite to dinner!

I'd love to get in on all those penny stock millions, but honestly, I don't have time to sit and watch my screen on intraday charts, sweat bullets or cry in my soup. Kudos to those warriors with the constitution for that, but I will pass.

So, feeling confident with my decisions and plan, ING will run my RRSP and TFSA with their Streetwise Funds; I have some small bits of this and that over at TD in the e-series funds for my youngest daughter's college days which are still a far way off; and as for the rest--it's time to get cracking and figure out what to buy and when.

The Fun Part: shopping!



Sunday, March 6, 2011

Stop Jumping In and Out of Success!

Why jump in and out of stocks at the wrong time and lose money? Whether you are making investment decisions based on your own analysis or using the expertise of others to guide and direct your investments, it's important to examine your past performance to see if your style and plan are actually working. Many financial "advisors" suggest buying and selling various managed funds, while other "experts" tout the snatch and sell on the run method. A common complaint in messages boards and blogs across the net is that of "missing out" on a trend, catching it on the wrong side of a peak or valley, or simply always being one step behind the action--playing the bench instead of enjoying the profits of a trend. Do it yourself investing can be a frustrating path to financial gain if your purchases are disjointed, incoherent or irrational.

Consider An Automated Plan

You've heard this before: set your goals, make a plan, stick to the plan, reassess the plan, rebalance. That's all fine--but it still requires you to do the research, analysis, make the selections and execute them. Financial advisors can do this for you. Fund managers are supposed to this for investors. And there are several online services that provide similar input into your investing activities to take the guesswork out of what to buy, sell, and when.

Single Instrument Investing

There are thousands of mutual funds--either passively managed using indexes, or more actively managed with specific equity allocations--which allow you to invest in a diverse collection of stocks and/or bonds and let your money sit and grow. The problem with many mutual funds is that over 80% of them don't tend to beat the various indexes in which they invest, and often come with significant management fees (MERs) that can chew up 2 to 3% or more of your annual profits. Other companies have designed pure index funds requiring low maintenance and thus lower MERs. ING Direct Canada, for example, offers a selection of Streetwise Funds which aim to replicate Canadian indexes in various proportions of bonds and stocks depending on your investment needs. The company suggests we "invest early, invest often and stay invested", using cost averaging to spread out the cost per unit of the fund and spread the risk of investing over the entire market with low management fees of around 1%.

A variety of exchange traded funds are also available with broad market diversity which serve to expose investors to various markets, various sectors and with optional amounts of bonds and equities, all which can be traded directly on the market like a stock. Some examples of these ETF's which can be purchased individually to replace a diversified mutual fund include these two iShares funds:
XCR: Conservative Core Portfolio Builder seeks to provide a combination of income with the potential for long-term capital growth.
XGR: Growth Core Portfolio Builder seeks to provide long-term capital growth by investing primarily in equity securities and to one or more alternative asset classes, with the balance invested in those that provide exposure to fixed income securities.
Claymore, Horizons and BMO offer similarly diversified ETF's.

Sleepy Portfolio Options

The original Couch Potato Portfolio was designed for investors who want to expend the least amount of energy into their investments by choosing a collection of index mutual or exchange traded funds and rebalancing them from time to time, but at least annually. Find the couch potato portfolio options here.

Memberships in Managed Automated Portfolios

Folio Investing is an American company that offers a portfolio of stocks, ETF's and mutual funds which can be traded in a single transaction. They offer multiple investment strategies based on collections of instruments and even allow you to customize within an strategy if you chose to exclude certain sectors or companies for personal or political reasons. For example, you can elect to delete any companies from a certain group of equities that might be involved in alcohol, tobacco, gambling, weapons, genocide or nuclear power. I really dig their website for its simplicity and attractiveness and functionality. They have a cool questionnaire tool that helps you determine what portfolio to buy based on risk, investment objective, time to retirement and sector interests. Check it out here.

Membership in Self-Directed Do It Yourself Investing Groups

One of my absolute favorite finds of the last few weeks has been doityourselfinvesting.com. The monthly membership service costs $10 at the writing of this blog which gives you a newsletter, regular portfolio updates and any alert notices that you'll need to take action on should urgent buy or sell signals present for equities or ETF's in the core portfolios suggested. They offer 4 portfolios currently: an equities portfolio for the US and one for Canada, and 2 similar ETF portfolios for the Canada and US. They publish their stats, previous holdings, performance and some back issues of newletters which are quite interesting and educational. I was most impressed with their performance during the last flash-crash which far outweighed that of any index fund, most mutual funds and the majority of single ETF's or equities. I highly recommend taking a look here.

Happy Investing!

Disclosure: the author owns shares in ING Streetwise Mutual Funds, is a new member of Do It Yourself Investing, invests in a couch potato portfolio using TD e-series funds, owns shares in XCS - S&P/TSX SmallCap Index Fund and does not own shares of XCR or XGR.