Hedge Funds Trading on the TSX?

I must admit I've been jealous of those investors qualified to purchase hedge fund positions. I have a dream goal of entering a long term position with Stephen Palmer's AlphaNorth Partners Fund, which I've discussed before in past blogs. The returns over time are excellent, not without higher risk of course, and seem to perform much better than the index and most mutual funds.

You need to have money to make money

The problem is, however, that you must be an accredited investor or have a great deal of cash to enter a position in most of the highly ranked hedge funds in Canada.

The FUND of Hedge FUNDS Investment

I've found a fund of funds, trading in a manner most similar to an ETF, of three top hedge funds available for investment on the TSX.
Star Hedge Managers Corp .

These "funds" issue "units" which trade like stocks, and aim to provide long term capital growth by investing in a portfolio of private investment funds managed by three of Canada's leading portfolio managers: Rohit Sehgal, Eric Sprott, and Frank Mersch. The Fund invests on a equal weighted basis in units of the Dynamic Power Hedge Fund (Sehgal), the Sprott Hedge Fund (Sprott) and the Front Street Fund (Mersch).

Trading Like a Stock is An Attractive Alternative

These "units" are attractive to me since investing in these funds individually is typically only available to high net worth or institutional investors requiring a $100,000 or $150,000 initial investment.

For example, the Dynamic Power Hedge prospectus can be found here.  A $150,000 investment in 2002 would be worth around $2 million dollars today.

The Sprott Hedge Fund boasts an 805% cumulative return since inception in November 2000 which correlates with 23.4% annualized compared to a 4.9% loss by the S&P500 (CAD) over the same time. Therefore a $100,000 investment in 2000 would be worth over $800,000 today.

The Front Street Canadian Hedge Fund launched in August of 1999 has returned an average of 10.9% per year compared to a 6.4% return by the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the same period.

The Canadian Newswire reported on March 31, 2011 the availability of the Star Hedge Manager Corp II units.

Star Hedge Managers Corp I and Star Hedge Managers Corp II trade on the TSX under the symbols XHM.A (priced at $5 on opening day Dec 31, 2008 and closing at $15.80 on May 5, 2011--an over 300% increase in less than 2.5 years) and XHG.A (ranging from $9.40 -$10.40 since launching on April 20th, 2011).

If you know of any other Canadian Hedge Funds or groups of hedge funds trading on the TSX in this way, please drop me a line. I would love to review them here.

Happy Investing

Disclosure: the author does not own positions in any of the funds listed here at time of publishing.

No News is Good News for Market Mood

How News and Mood Affect the Markets

The old adage "no news is good news" seems to relate well to the stock market. And investor moods plays a big role in market swings.

Market volatility can be very different at different times. For example, the announcement of rising unemployment is good news for stocks during periods of economic expansion and bad news during economic decline.

A rise in unemployment tends to signal a decline in interest rates--good for stock prices-- and yet a decline in future corporate earnings--bad for stock prices. The combination of these two effects and the result in stock prices varies depending on the state of the economy.

Pietro Veronesi, University of Chicago, showed that investors rationally anticipate that during periods of high uncertainty their expectations of future cash flows tend to react more swiftly to news. This predictable higher sensitivity to news tends to increase the asset price volatility, against which risk-averse investors are willing to hedge. His research shows that "in equilibrium, investors' willingness to hedge against changes in their own "uncertainty" on the true state makes stock prices overreact to bad news in good times and underreact to good news in bad times."

Good News in Bad Times Ignored?
The main result is that when times are good, a bad piece of news leads to greater price reductions in investments greater than the reduction in expected future dividends.

Bad News in Good Times Overreacted?
Conversely, a good piece of news in bad times tends to increase the expected future dividends, but also increases the discount investors require to hold the asset, such that the increase in price is lower than the increase in expected future dividends.

As well, the degree of investor reactions to news tends to be high in good times and low in bad or uncertain times. Volatility as a response to news in bad times is also much higher than volatility in good times.
Some Funny Cartoons:

Twitter Predicts Market Swings!
Twitterverse mood predicts stock market moves. In a study from the University of Indiana, it was found that the overall mood of Twitter users could be used to predict market swings.

By creating search queries for popular phrases using keywords such as "happy", "sad", "fearful" or optimistic, a daily "Twitterverse Mood Score" could be compiled which correlated with the direction of market expansion or contraction.

Shifts in Twitterverse moods scores predict market shifts by nearly 90% accuracy.

So What Does Mood and News Mean for Private Investors Like Us?
1. No news is likely good news.
2. Investor mood seems to play a major role in driving markets on any given day.
3. Bad news in good times tends to lead to greater reactions from investors.
4. Good news in bad times does not necessarily lead to increase in stock prices.
5. Twitter can be used a social barometer and therefore predict market moves. 6. Maybe I should get out of the market and put my money in a savings account. (just kidding!)

Happy Investing!

Some funny cartoons